No that is not a mis-print. Minnesota should build a new stadium to house the Minnesota Vikings, and it should be absurdly small. There are numerous reasons why; attendance trends, stadium revenue trends, consumer viewing choices, local development possibilities and lastly pure out-of-pocket costs.
The NFL is without a peer when it pertains to its vast popularity in America; however that doesn’t give the NFL free relief from its game day ticket sales. While MLB attendance continues to increase the NFL has had four straight years of decline. In 2006, NFL stadiums played to 99.9% of capacity. After four years of declines the average game is played in front of only a 95% filled stadium. The economy has been the public whipping boy for this trend, I think its debatable. I’d consider the increased popularity of Fantasy Football, HDTV’s and an increasingly annoyed fan base as equal contributers.
Stadium Trends indicate that going smaller may be the proper direction. Case in point, the remodeled Soldier Field in Chicago decreased capacity from 67,000 down to 61,500. You don’t spend $650 Million to remodel for a smaller stadium, without reason. What is the reason you ask? Average price per ticket and average game day purchases per attendee. Research indicates that NFL stadiums are not immune to the 80/20 rule. 80% of revenue is coming from 20% of the attendees. Common sense would tell me that if I took my stadium down from 70,000 to 40,000 I’m eliminating mostly the lower priced tickets and the demographic that is spending a lot less at the game. In the business world, we call this “pruning” our least profitable customers. The hope for the team owners would be that the “pruned” customers remain customers in the future, just in a different bin than before. We will get to that later.
I think the biggest reason to be progressive now and build the small stadium is technology. Although 3D-TV’s have been tardy to catch on, I think that is about to change quickly. Toshiba introduced 3D tv’s that are “glass-less” in Japan this winter. Although only available in 20-inch models at the moment, Toshiba estimates they will have a 60-inch “glass-less” 3D-TV available in 2014. This technology will reset the bar to an amazingly high level. NFL will find ways to capitalize. In 5 years, I foresee the NFL offering a viewer package that would allow you to watch the game from “any seat in the house”. Capitalizing on its ability to put dozens of camera’s in the stadium you literally will be able to watch the game in 3D from viewpoints ranging from sideline seats, either endzone and eventually I think from a “player-cam”. And I suspect the player of your choice. Of course the enhanced viewing experience will not come free.
The 3D-TV technology is really were the “pruned” game-day attendees will likely land. The upper-deck and lower priced seats include more hardcore fans who will lap the enhanced viewing up. Instead of spending $2,500 a year for a pair of season tickets ($5,000 a year at the new luxury stadium) they will plop down $150 a year for the NFL 3D package.
The goal with the remaining 40,000 fans is to increase the game day experience by such a level that average ticket prices and average dollars spent on game-day can improve dramatically. With a smaller blue-print in place and a much smaller market to sell tickets to team owners can focus on moving its percentage of “club-level” seats to unprecedented levels. I would suggest 50-60% of the total seating capacity to be of “club-level” quality, 10-15% to be “suite-level” quality and the remaining 30% to be dang close to a club-level experience. NFL teams should reserve only 10% of its seats to the common fan just looking for a hard plastic seat and average site lines. Game Day experience is becoming all about the “upsells” with added in-stadium dining and bar options. I think it eventually goes to the next level with VIP packages that will include pre-game brunch’s that guarantees you to sit with a former player or coach. For an extra $1,000 you and a guest can sit at the same table as Chuck Foreman and get a picture and autographed jersey afterwards (a table of 10 = $3,500 to the Owners and $1,500 to the player).
I have no numbers to back this up, but I’m going to estimate the cost of a 40,000 seat luxury stadium to be around $150 million cheaper than a much larger 70-75,000 seat generic stadium. Instead of politicians selling a smaller price tag, they should pitch the same amount and use the savings to jointly invest in developing the area to become a focal point for the state and not just a stadium to use on Sundays. The Patriots Gillette Stadium has a 1.3 Million square foot mall connected to it. Future trends tell me this is a wave of the future. Bring in a few big boxes, some local retailers, several dining options and now you have revenue producing year round and a real economic impact for the state.
Like it or not the game day experience for an NFL fan is getting more expensive every year. It is no longer affordable for the average family of four, no reason to hide it or be ashamed of it. The State of Minnesota should approve and build a stadium that replicates these trends and adjusts to the obvious technology upgrades on the horizon. If a stadium is approved next month, likely opening day for it would be in 2014. The average viewer will have some crazy at-home options by then. Ten years from now a 70,000 seat stadium will be a dinosaur, let’s build a stadium that will be the prototype for the future and not an old fossil.